Why Western Strategists Should Continue Reading Liu Cixin’s The Dark Forest

Luke M. Herrington

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The unsettling premise at the core of Liu Cixin’s 2008 novel, The Dark Forest, is that deterrence is more than a theory of international politics; it is part of a universal law governing the behavior of all societies. Western planners, policymakers, and other security thinkers concerned about potential future conflicts (or cooperation) with the People’s Republic of China should recognize the importance of this conception. A Chinese worldview that looks at national security, foreign policy, and international relations in this way has staggering implications for the future of geopolitics. Indeed, nearly 20 years after its first publication, the book stands out as one of the most provocative, albeit fictional, explorations of deterrence heretofore written. Yet, despite its significance, there is a tendency for other commentators to recommend the full Remembrance of Earth’s Past trilogy, while Liu’s The Three-Body Problem appears alone more frequently on strategic and military reading lists than either The Dark Forest itself, or Death’s End, its sequel.

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However, I argue that if Western security thinkers are to read any one of the three books, they should read The Dark Forest. In addition to its radical perspective on deterrence, the book endures today for the insight it provides into the future of Chinese space power theory, its native portrayal of Chinese culture, and its potential influence on the strategic socialization of China’s future leaders. Where fiction generally has value for leader development, and science fiction promotes creativity, futures thinking, and political awareness, The Dark Forest offers insights into Chinese culture and the future of Chinese thought that other works cannot match. In an effort to show that the novel should be required reading for Western strategic thinkers, especially those concerned with long-term competition and conflict with China, this essay, rather than being a book review, contextualizes these literary themes and implications by situating them in a discussion of Chinese strategy and culture.

The Law of Deterrence

The idea of “dark forest deterrence” is just one example of Chinese reasoning on the broader topic of deterrence, but Liu’s is one that raises the concept and related ideas (like mutually assured destruction) from mere theoretical principles to a universal law. Popularized by Liu’s novel, the “dark forest” is a metaphor used by some real life astrophysicists to explain the Fermi paradox, or the idea that the universe should be teeming with life despite the fact that the scientific search for extraterrestrial intelligence has never found evidence supporting this contention. It refers to a social Darwinian conception of a competitive forest biome wherein weaker species are preyed upon by larger predators. As prey animals might learn stealth to avoid detection in a dark forest, weak civilizations in the dark forest of the cosmos must therefore maintain stealth to prevent destruction at the hands of a more powerful actor. What happens in the Three-Body Problem and The Dark Forest is that the Earth fails to adhere to this principle.

The Trisolarans, a more advanced civilization, discover Earth after a disgruntled Chinese researcher makes first contact. While Trisolaris is an insignificant power in terms of galactic politics, humans are little more than bugs by comparison. Following the Thucydidean dictum that “the strong do what they can” while “the weak suffer what they must,” Trisolaris launches an invasion fleet intent on conquering the Earth. In other words, Liu’s conception of the universe is one where the cosmos stands in for the Hobbesian state of nature. As a result, The Dark Forest conceptualizes realist security dilemmas, zero-sum games, and mutually assured destruction not as elements of a realist theory of international politics, but as a universal law of sociopolitical interaction that governs all societies, be they planets or nation-states. Dark forest deterrence, one asymmetric component of this law, then emerges from the Hobbesian order as the only viable strategy available to minor states confronting a great power.

The idea is rooted in four notions of cosmic sociology. First, suggests the novel, all life forms, and especially intelligent life forms always expand. Second, resources in the universe are finite. Third, chains of suspicion (read security dilemmas) prevent societies from establishing trust with one another. And finally, technological explosions can allow one civilization to leapfrog another, regardless of any of the latter’s previous relative advantages. Taken together, this means intelligent civilizations will always come into conflict. If a nation-state is to capture the resources necessary to grow its civilization over the long term, it must prevent conflict with weaker civilizations by wiping them out and stronger civilizations by masking their capabilities. Strong societies must wipe out weaker ones because the weak can always become stronger after a technological explosion. Weak societies must remain quiet in the “dark forest” of the universe to avoid such annihilation, especially if they aspire to ever become a greater power.

Its public admonitions against the “law of the jungle” notwithstanding, China adheres to this principle. According to Rush Doshi, the approach of “hiding capabilities and biding time” has been key to China’s longer-term strategy of displacing the United States from global leadership. In the case of The Dark Forest, Earth, also like China in real life, refuses to be prey. Even on the cusp of conquest, it frantically searches for ways to deter or defeat its more powerful adversary. Stumbling onto the idea of mutually assured destruction embodied in dark forest deterrence, Earth realizes Trisolaris is only strong by self-comparison; compared to other great powers in the galaxy, it too is weak. To borrow from a different sci-fi franchise: “there’s always a bigger fish.” Thus, once the people of Earth develop the capability to broadcast Trisolaris’ location in the galaxy to anyone else who may be listening, the two planets are able to arrive at a temporary détente. This allows Earth and Trisolaris the brief ability to survive and even cooperate despite living in a Hobbesian state of nature. The real China cannot rely on a “bigger fish,” but its “assassin’s mace” program, anti-access and area denial capabilities, and nuclear weapons program can all be thought of as tools aimed at establishing a similar détente with the United States.

The same may be true of China’s anti-satellite program. China, and the United States itself, both recognize the latter’s dependence on space domain superiority as an enabler for American military primacy on land, at sea, and in the air. As it works to achieve its own ability to operate effectively in space, China has realized that losing access to the domain would be far more consequential for its rival across the Pacific than it would be for itself. The development of its anti-satellite weapons program reflects this fact. Despite the potential for such weapons to result in a cascade of mutual destruction (i.e., Kessler Syndrome) that could wipe out all satellites in, and prevent future access to, a given orbit, China’s anti-satellite weapons tests may signal a willingness to sacrifice its own access to the space domain to level the playing field with the United States in a way the American military cannot itself deter.

Space Theory and Doctrine

Speaking of the space domain, another reason to read The Dark Forest concerns its meditations on space power theory generally. The first half of the book tackles questions about the future of Chinese space operations directly as Liu questions whether Alfred Thayer Mahan’s theories of naval power ought to drive Chinese thinking about space militarization. Later, he tacitly accepts a different Western idea about space conflict. During the “doomsday” space battle depicted in The Dark Forest, Liucritiques two-dimensional thinking when it comes to space operations just as Ender’s Game highlights the need for a three-dimensional approach in space. Where Liu rejects the maritime analogy for space conflict, his bookinstead echoes emerging arguments that the future of space warfare doctrine is one characterized not by Jominian “lines” or “fronts” but by contested zones of operations.

However, while the People’s Liberation Army has built and updated its space theory and doctrine over the past two decades, it does not appear to have yet caught up with this thinking. There is, of course, an implicit, physics-dictated kind of three-dimensional thinking inherent in China’s interest in outward movement towards cislunar space, the moon, Mars, and the asteroid belt, as well the fact that space operations are driven by orbital mechanics. Similar can be said of their conceptualization of space as the “ultimate high ground.” Beyond this tacit understanding though, the 2020 edition of Science of Military Strategy only explicitly eschews two-dimensionality in its thinking on biological warfare and disinformation; linear thinking remains prevalent elsewhere throughout the document, as evidenced by comments on such things as “front lines” and “lines of communication.” Likewise, recent space power work by Chinese academics is more inclined to speak of “battlefields in space” (太空战场) than of battlespaces. Of course, other recent texts, such as the 2024 Introduction to Space Operations, may shed additional light on this question when translated, but People’s Liberation Army thinking presently seems to lag behind Liu’s ideas on space power theory.

Culture and Soft Power

Beyond deterrence and space power theory, The Dark Forest also opens a window into Chinese thinking and culture more generally. To be sure, it provides only one Chinese citizen’s vision of the future rather than a definitive perspective. Nevertheless, it sheds light on Chinese experience and futures thinking in a way many nonfiction works on China by Western authors cannot themselves achieve. This is important because a better understanding of Chinese culture is key to cultivating strategic empathy towards the People’s Republic, which is itself necessary to understand why China thinks and behaves the way it does in world affairs.

Moreover, while some of Liu’s work appears to include more nuanced portrayals of Chinese politics, including critical takes on the Chinese Communist Party, as an individual, he has also expressed sympathies with the party’s policies. While high profile Chinese citizens like Liu must toe the Communist Party line to avoid crackdowns by the repressive regime, these are the systemic constraints of life in China that merit reading his novelas more than just a product of his individual mind. As an author in an authoritarian regime, the fact is that his books must pass the scrutiny of regime censors committed to the positive portrayal of their country and culture. Thus, despite nods to democracy in The Dark Forest, or negative portrayals of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in the book’s forerunner, Liu depicts a strong, prosperous future for China consistent with Communist Party goals and narratives.

Indeed, the whole Remembrance of Earth’s Past trilogy resonates with massive audiences in mainland China precisely because, as a product of its time and place, it reflects Chinese culture. Take the subtle appearance of a “snowy” painting, a symbolic plot device important to the first half of the novel, as an example. White space plays a vital role in Chinese artwork. Paintings and other visual media weave emptiness into their imagery and leave the imagination to interpret their meaning as part of the “story” they tell. In The Dark Forest, the snowy landscape reflects the protagonist’s sense of loneliness and loss driving his resolve in the face of a powerful adversary, an emotion and reaction not unlike those the Communist Party desires to inculcate collectively throughout China with its narratives about the “Century of Humiliation.”

Additionally, the Trisolarans mirror “low-context” cultures, those most likely to misunderstand Sinic or other East Asian societies. Evolutionarily adapted to engage in light-speed communication through bioluminescence, they represent an analogue to the more open, and direct kinds of communication prevalent in the democratic West. Because the Trisolarans are physiologically incapable of deception, Liu’s “Wallfacer” protagonists come to rely on the kinds of indirect approach and secrecy embodied in the 36 Stratagems and Art of War to counter the threat posed by the invaders. The Wallfacers also come to embody Han Fei’s legalist conception of an “empty ruler,” by masking their intentions, emotions, and desires to prevent the Trisolarans from gaining a greater position of relative advantage over the Earth. By contrast, the transparency of Trisolaran communication serves as an asymmetric vulnerability reminiscent of the way democratic standards of open communication make it possible for adversaries of Western nations to weaponize behavioral science and psychology in information warfare against the latter.

The Trisolarans also mirror China’s general concern with resource access and the Communist Party’s specific perceptions of insecurity. Trisolaran efforts to project power against the Earth are motivated by the fact that their planet is relatively weak and resource poor compared to others hiding in the Hobbesian dark forest. While this stems from the way Trisolaris undergoes frequent periods of ecological and astronomical instability, related more to the Newtonian “three body problem” in gravitational physics than domestic politics, these periods of instability are not unlike periods of volatility in China’s political history (e.g., the Boxer Rebellion, the Tiananmen Square protests).

Yet, Liu’s fiction does not resonate with the Chinese people exclusively. It also stands out as an important example of Chinese soft power. As popular outside of China, Remembrance of Earth’s Past won acclaim from US President Barack Obama while he was still in office. Moreover, the series has spawned two different television adaptations, one Chinese and one American, though set in London. Admittedly, because the American 3 Body Problem is a Western production, the party’s influence over content is more limited, creating controversies among the Chinese public for its portrayal of the Cultural Revolution. Nevertheless, with production of the show’s second season having begun in the Fall of 2025, the series remains an important vector of Chinese intellectual and cultural influence among Western publics.

Leader Socialization

Liu’s Remembrance of Earth’s Past books, and The Dark Forest in particular, are more than just another sci-fi series dealing with the global fallout that results from first contact with an extraterrestrial civilization. Despite their fantastic premise, they tell a very human story, and they represent a profound perspective on the practice of realist international relations. Most importantly, their prominent position in Chinese culture means these books have likely shaped and will continue to shape the strategic imaginations of China’s future leaders. When one considers the way both “high” culture and popular culture can drive the processes of primary and secondary socialization that take place throughout a person’s life, a very real possibility exists that the Remembrance of Earth’s Past will have long term implications for the future of Chinese political and strategic culture.

At the very least, it could become a common point of reference for Chinese political and military elites, much in the way Star Wars functions in the West. If true, as generations of future leaders matriculate through the Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, they will almost certainly carry with them ideas about space power, deterrence, and war shaped by reading Liu’s work or consuming related media. It is important to take seriously the possibility that future Chinese leaders will have internalized these ideas, with implications for great power competition and conflict reverberating throughout the 21st century. Chinese leaders inspired by the book will, at a minimum, likely continue to seek asymmetric deterrence capabilities and the concordant ability to achieve mutually assured destruction as the only means by which to make cooperation with the United States possible. The question of whether détente and cooperation in this possible future will be all they seek remains an open one.

Conclusion

Where many have recommended reading the Three-Body Problem or full Remembrance of Earth’s Past trilogy to military and strategic leaders in the past, I argue that the most important of Liu’s three novels in the series is The Dark Forest. Its view of deterrence as an asymmetric tool that can eliminate a more powerful foe’s position of advantage raises the concept from the level of a theory to a law of social relations. In doing so, it sheds light on Chinese behavior, particularly with respect to the country’s anti-satellite program. The novel appears to be ahead of the People’s Liberation Army’s thinking on space power theory, but it also provides native insight into more current aspects of China’s culture. The book and related media also represent important instruments of Chinese soft power that have real potential to influence the strategic socialization of China’s current and future leaders. The novel should thus be on every Western security thinker’s reading list, especially for those interested in the rise of China. This is true regardless of whether they intend to read The Three-Body Problem or Death’s End, neither of which is necessary to understand the plot of The Dark Forest.

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Dr. Luke M. Herrington is an associate professor of social science at the School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. A political scientist and international relations scholar by training, he earned his PhD in political science from the University of Kansas. His research largely concerns issues at the nexus of political psychology and national security/foreign affairs. Herrington’s work also appears in The Diplomat, RealClear Defense, Joint Force Quarterly, Military Review, and Journal of Military Learning.

*Opinions, conclusions, recommendations expressed or implied are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the School of Advanced Military Studies, the Command and General Staff College, the Department of War, or any other U.S. government agency.

Note: The author's book chapter (with Dr. Melia Pfannenstiel) on terrorism in Liu Cixin’s Three-Body Problem is due out in The Three-Body Problem and International Relations (eds., James Wesley Hutto and Wendy Whitman Cobb) from the University Press of Florida on June 30, 2026. He also extends his gratitude to Dr. Dan Cox, Lieutenant Colonel (Dr.) John Bolton, Major Colton Mercer, and Jeannie Herrington for contributing ideas to this article. Reference to brand names and/or any mention or listing of specific commercial products or services herein is solely for educational purposes and does not imply endorsement by the author or the School of Advanced Military Studies.